IDX e-IPO Analytics
IDX · 2021–2026RANS
IndustrialsHard lockDemanding ~28-35x trailing P/E on three straight years of declining revenue and a 42% profit drop in 2025 (2024 was flattered by a one-off Rp44.9bn disposal gain). The draw is a genuine celebrity-IP moat (Raffi Ahmad, Nagita Slavina) and a clean, low-leverage balance sheet funding a growth-oriented raise; the risk is extreme key-person concentration and whether the brand can re-accelerate the top line.
Top-tier IDX equity underwriter: #1 in the 2022 Bloomberg equity-underwriting league (Rp5.2T, 14.5% share) and the busiest IPO lead in 2025 (~4 deals incl. the two largest, CDIA and CBDK). Its marquee recent lead IPOs held up strongly: CBDK (+157% in a week), CDIA (~+300%), AADI (~+42%). Performance confirmed for the headline deals; smaller 2025 names (PSAT, MINE) unverified.
How each axis scores
- Revenue growth (FY25)-13.9%31
- Net-profit growth (FY25)-38.8%22
- Gross margin (FY25)43.2%70
- Net margin (FY25)16.0%78
- ROE (FY25)16.6%59
- Net-margin trend (3-yr)19%→16%48
- Profit consistency (3-yr)3/3 yrs profitable90
- Earnings qualityone-off / non-op flag64
- P/E (post-money)31.5×51
- P/B (post-money)2.54×56
- Analyst verdictDemanding ~28-35x trailing P/E on three straight years of declining revenue and a 42% profit drop in 2025 (2024 was flattered by a one-off Rp44.9bn disposal gain). The draw is a genuine celebrity-IP moat (Raffi Ahmad, Nagita Slavina) and a clean, low-leverage balance sheet funding a growth-oriented raise; the risk is extreme key-person concentration and whether the brand can re-accelerate the top line.35
- Leverage (DER, FY25)0.35×91
- DER post-IPO (est.)n/dn/d
- Proceeds to debt repay7%82
- Underwriter track recordTrimegah Sekuritas Indonesia (A)90
- Shareholder compositionpep-linked · 3 holders ≥5% · top 63%39
- Liquidity & deal sizeRp1.9T mcap · 20% float75
- Deal structureHard lock · ESA82
- Red / green flag balance6 green / 10 red44
Each axis is a 0–100 blend of the inputs shown; the headline is their weighted mean (Fundamentals 30 · Valuation 22 · Balance sheet 16 · Governance & sponsor 32). Margins, ROE and valuation multiples are scored half on absolute bands, half against sector / cohort peers; earnings quality discounts one-off / non-operating profit. Deterministic and auditable — educational only, not a recommendation. See disclaimer.
Business model
p.69 (segments), Note 27 (revenue lines), p.1 (offering)
Celebrity-IP media holding monetising the audience and brand of Raffi Ahmad, Nagita Slavina and family, across two segments: Hiburan & Lifestyle (content, endorsements, talent, production, events) and Penjualan Produk (IP-branded F&B and beauty).
| Content on social media | 33.5% | Rp 118.5B |
| IP food, beverage & beauty products | 30.3% | Rp 107.0B |
| Production house, event & ticketing | 21.2% | Rp 74.8B |
| Brand ambassador & talent management | 14.7% | Rp 51.9B |
| Others | 0.3% | Rp 1.2B |
The Hiburan & Lifestyle segment (~70% of revenue and the profit engine, ~35% segment margin) earns from social-media content and advertising, brand-ambassador and endorsement deals, talent management, a production house, and live events and ticketing. The Penjualan Produk segment (~30%) sells IP-branded food, beverage and beauty products and was loss-making in 2025. The asset being monetised is the reach and goodwill of the Raffi/Nagita family brand.
Ownership & cap table
Pre-IPO → Post-IPO
| Holder | Pre % | Post % | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raffi Farid AhmadPEP | 78.7% | 62.9% | 7,935,000,000 |
| Masyarakat (Public) | — | 20.0% | 2,525,000,000 |
| PT Indonesia Entertainmen GrupConglomerateListed affiliate | 9.0% | 7.2% | 911,500,000 |
| Soultan Ariq Rachman | 3.4% | 2.7% | 345,500,000 |
| Dony OskariaPEP | 3.4% | 2.7% | 345,250,000 |
| Sutanto HartonoListed affiliate | 1.4% | 1.1% | 144,000,000 |
| Nagita Slavina Mariana TengkerPEP family | 1.2% | 1.0% | 124,750,000 |
| Kaesang PangarepPEPPEP family | 1.1% | 0.9% | 115,250,000 |
| Hikmat Janika | 0.9% | 0.7% | 86,250,000 |
| PT Ekonomi Baru Investasi TeknologiListed affiliate | 0.8% | 0.6% | 76,750,000 |
RANS is a founder-controlled media holding (Raffi Ahmad 62.93% post-IPO, with wife Nagita Slavina) carrying unusually dense political exposure: the controlling owner is himself a sitting Presidential Special Envoy, while the register also includes SOE regulatory chief Dony Oskaria and PSI chairman Kaesang Pangarep (son of ex-President Jokowi). It is simultaneously conglomerate-linked through Emtek/SCMA (PT Indonesia Entertainmen Grup ~7.2% plus Emtek CEO Sutanto Hartono) and the listed Bali United group. A celebrity-and-politically-connected float where governance, related-party and headline risk weigh heavily.
- Controlling UBO Raffi Ahmad is a sitting government official (Presidential Special Envoy)
- Multiple PEPs on the register: Dony Oskaria (Head of BP BUMN / acting Minister of BUMN / Danantara COO) and Kaesang Pangarep (PSI chairman, son of former President Jokowi)
- Emtek/SCMA conglomerate affiliation via PT Indonesia Entertainmen Grup and CEO Sutanto Hartono, implying related-party content/distribution dependence
- Float is small (~20%) with the founder retaining majority control
UnverifiedUnder review · 3 items · not findings of wrongdoing
- Media-reported money-laundering allegations (2023-24) and an incidental mention in a 2026 customs trial never resulted in Raffi Ahmad being named a suspect, charged, or convicted; noted as headline-volatility risk, not a finding of wrongdoing.
- October 2025 media reports described a wave of RANS staff resignations citing heavy workloads; sourced to ex-employee accounts, not a formal labor ruling.
- Minority holder Hikmat Janika (0.68%) could not be reliably identified; one outlet's 'hospital official' identification may be a namesake. Confirm against the final prospectus.
Structural facts from public-source research; items marked Unverified are unproven (dated allegations or possible namesakes) and may be wrong. Not findings of wrongdoing; see disclaimer.
Use of proceeds
→ debt 7.0%
Financials
FY2023 – FY2025 · IDR
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 437.8B | Rp 410.5B | Rp 353.4B |
| Gross profit | Rp 176.3B | Rp 159.2B | Rp 152.7B |
| Gross margin | 40.3% | 38.8% | 43.2% |
| Net profit (parent) | Rp 90.2B | Rp 99.8B | Rp 61.0B |
| Net margin | 19.3% | 23.6% | 16.0% |
| Total assets | Rp 516.9B | Rp 590.8B | Rp 461.0B |
| Total liabilities | Rp 198.6B | Rp 156.5B | Rp 120.2B |
| Total equity | Rp 318.3B | Rp 434.3B | Rp 340.8B |
| DER (total) | 0.62× | 0.36× | 0.35× |
| ROE | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.6% |
| FY25 YoY | rev -13.9% · net profit -38.8% | ||
Valuation & leverage
- Trailing P/E
- 27.9–35.1×
- P/BV (post-money)
- 2.3–2.8×
- Post-IPO mkt cap
- Rp 1.7T – Rp 2.1T
- ROE post-money
- 8.1%
- DER FY25 → post-IPO
- 0.35× → n/d
- Dividend policy
- —
Red flags
10 flagged
- Extreme key-person/talent concentration on Raffi Ahmad & Nagita Slavina + family - issuer's own #1 stated risk; revenue & brand value tied to their continued involvement and reputation
- Revenue DECLINED 3 consecutive years (437.8bn 2023 -> 410.5bn 2024 -> 353.4bn 2025; -14% in 2025); core 'Hiburan & Lifestyle' segment down 14.4% in 2025 on weaker brand-ambassador/talent-management activity
- Net profit fell 41.6% in 2025 (97.1bn -> 56.7bn); FY2024 profit flattered by one-off Rp44.94bn gain on disposal of subsidiary (sports/RPKSB) - underlying earnings trend weaker than headline
- Demanding valuation: ~28-35x trailing P/E on FALLING earnings; ROE dilutes from ~16.6% to ~8% post-raise
- Low free float (20.02%) + issuer-flagged share illiquidity risk - shares may be held by few parties not trading in secondary market
- Bulk of proceeds to unproven growth bets: Rp161.45bn (37.6%) to concert promotion (event-risk, no fixed contracts), Rp85bn (19.8%) re-acquiring previously-divested Slavina, Rp80bn Cipungland rollout (mostly LoI-stage leases), Rp35bn AI JV
- Product segment loss-making (segment loss Rp11.99bn in 2025 vs profit Rp2.33bn 2024); consistently negative NCI signals loss-making subsidiaries; associates loss-making + Rp1.64bn impairment in 2025
- Three different audit firms across 2023/2024/2025; revenue recognition flagged as Key Audit Matter; FY2025 report re-issued for IPO
- Slavina re-acquisition: entity was divested by the Company to PT RFA in 2023, now re-acquired for Rp85bn - declared non-affiliated/non-material but 'Rans' branding & round-trip history warrant scrutiny
- BNI loan secured by Raffi Ahmad personal guarantee + HQ land - ties controller's personal assets to corporate debt (being repaid at IPO, mitigating)
Green flags
6 positives
- Durable celebrity-IP moat: the audience and goodwill of Raffi Ahmad, Nagita Slavina and family
- Clean, low-leverage balance sheet (DER 0.35x, interest cover ~20x)
- 8-month hard lock-up on founder shares protects minorities
- 100% primary structure - all proceeds fund the company, no controller cash-out
- Profitable, cash-generative core 'Hiburan & Lifestyle' segment (~35% segment margin, ~70% of revenue)
- Clean legal record; BNI debt (personally guaranteed) repaid at IPO
Questions before you subscribe
9 questions
Primary risk. Dependence on key talent Raffi Ahmad and Nagita Slavina and their family (talent-concentration / key-person risk). Per cover-page risk disclosure: a decline in their involvement or a reputational issue could materially & negatively affect business and financial performance.
Tailwind. Indonesian digital content/creator economy: growth in internet penetration, viewership/engagement on YouTube/Instagram/TikTok, rising advertising/sponsorship spend, and live-events/concert demand. (Documented as business drivers in MD&A; no specific market-CAGR figure stated in the reviewed sections.)
- Final IPO price, issuance cost %, and proforma post-IPO equity (all blank in preliminary draft)
- Concert opex economics (Rp161.45bn / 37.6% of proceeds) - which artists, expected margins, downside if concerts underperform; no fixed promoter contracts disclosed
- Slavina (PT Rans Kosmetika) re-acquisition - valuation basis for Rp85bn, % stake acquired, financials of target, rationale for 2023 divestment then 2026 re-acquisition; confirm seller PT RFA genuinely non-affiliated
- Feedloop AI JV (Rp35bn / 8.15%) - structure, ownership split, expected returns, why AI adjacency
- Cipungland rollout risk - most leases are LoI/quotation-stage (not signed); execution risk on 9-outlet 2026-2027 plan
- Why three different auditors in three years; details of revenue-recognition Key Audit Matter
- Reason for revenue & profit decline trajectory; brand-ambassador/talent-management pipeline going forward
- Trimegah Sekuritas relationship - past director/commissioner Audit Committee membership (2013-2025); confirm independence
- Live IDX comparables (celebrity/media/IP) and dividend track record
Full forensic writeupclick to expand
Thesis
RANS (PT RANS Entertainmen Indonesia Tbk) is a celebrity-IP media holding company built around Raffi Ahmad and Nagita Slavina, raising up to Rp429.25bn for 20.02% in a 100% primary offering. The bull case is a genuine, hard-to-replicate brand moat (one of Indonesia's largest social-media audiences) attached to a clean, almost debt-free balance sheet, with proceeds aimed at growth rather than repair. The bear case is in the trailing numbers: revenue has declined three years running and net profit fell 42% in 2025, while the deal is priced at a demanding ~28-35x earnings. This is a bet that the brand can re-accelerate a softening top line, paid for at a premium multiple, with the entire equity story resting on two people.
How the business works
RANS monetises the audience and brand of Raffi Ahmad, Nagita Slavina and family across two audited segments. The Hiburan & Lifestyle segment (about 70% of FY2025 revenue and the profit engine, at roughly 35% segment margin) earns from social-media content and advertising, brand-ambassador and endorsement deals, talent management, a production house, and live events and ticketing. The Penjualan Produk segment (about 30%) sells IP-branded food, beverage and beauty products, and was loss-making in 2025 (a segment loss of around Rp12bn). The defining dependency is key-person concentration: revenue and brand value are tied to the continued involvement and reputation of Raffi and Nagita, which the issuer names as its own number-one risk. The demand backdrop is a large, young, social-first Indonesian consumer base, but the asset being sold is fundamentally the reach and goodwill of a single family.
The offering & ownership
The IPO is 2,525,000,000 new shares (20.02% of post-IPO capital), entirely primary, so all proceeds accrue to the company. Pricing is Rp135 to Rp170 (par Rp10), implying a post-IPO market capitalisation of roughly Rp1.70tn to Rp2.14tn on 12,609,250,000 shares, underwritten on a full-commitment basis by Trimegah. Ownership is concentrated: Raffi Farid Ahmad holds 62.93% post-IPO as sole controller and ultimate beneficial owner, with the founder and family bloc (nine pre-IPO holders including Nagita Slavina, Dony Oskaria, Soultan Ariq Rachman and Kaesang Pangarep) at 79.98% against a 20.02% public float. The lock-up is genuinely strong: all nine pre-IPO holders signed 8-month statutory POJK 25/2017 lock-up statements, and Raffi has separately committed to retain control for three years. There is no ESA or MESOP programme. Dividend policy is up to 35% of net profit starting FY2026.
Governance & related parties
Control and economic ownership are aligned in one person, which removes the control-mismatch question seen in some peers but raises the opposite concern: minority influence is minimal under a single ~63% controller. The use of proceeds carries the related-party item to watch. About 19.8% of the raise (Rp85bn) funds an acquisition tied to the Slavina/family brand, and a further slice funds an AI joint venture (Feedloop) and the Cipungland project, so a meaningful portion of public money flows into ventures within the founder's orbit; the arm's-length basis and independent valuation of these should be confirmed in the final prospectus. The board's independent-commissioner substance and the related-party framework around content and endorsement deals (where the controller is also the product) are the governance areas a careful reader should weigh. The issuer reports a clean legal record.
Reading the financials
The trajectory is the crux. Revenue declined each of the last three years, from Rp437.8bn (2023) to Rp410.5bn (2024) to Rp353.4bn (2025). Reported net profit looks like it rose then fell sharply, but the 2024 figure is flattered: it includes a one-off Rp44.9bn gain on the disposal of a subsidiary (the RPKSB sports business), offset by a Rp10.5bn loss from that discontinued operation, leaving total profit for the year of Rp97.1bn. Strip the disposal out and the underlying earnings trend is softening rather than growing; 2025 total net profit of Rp56.7bn is down about 42%. Note that profit attributable to parent (Rp61.0bn in 2025) exceeds total profit because non-controlling interests absorbed losses, so valuation should use the parent figure. The balance sheet, by contrast, is a real strength: total liabilities of Rp120.2bn against equity of Rp340.8bn put DER at just 0.35x (down from 0.62x in 2023), interest cover is roughly 20x, and the only interest-bearing debt is a single BNI investment facility (about Rp37bn) that the IPO largely retires. This is a low-leverage, cash-generative business; the question is top-line direction, not solvency.
Valuation
At the range, RANS prices at roughly 27.9 to 35.1x trailing FY2025 earnings attributable to parent (about 30 to 38x on total profit), with post-money price-to-book near 2.3 to 2.8x. That is a demanding multiple to pay for a company whose revenue has fallen three years running and whose 2024 profit was inflated by a non-recurring disposal. The multiple only makes sense if the brand-led growth plan (concerts, the Slavina acquisition, IP products, the AI venture) genuinely reignites the top line and the Product segment turns. Pre-money ROE of 16.6% dilutes to roughly 8% post-raise as the equity base expands. Note that issuance costs and the proforma equity table are blank in this preliminary draft, so net proceeds and exact post-money book value are back-solved and should be confirmed. A relative read needs live multiples for Indonesian media and IP peers at publication.
Bottom line
RANS pairs a rare asset, a durable celebrity-IP brand on a clean, low-leverage balance sheet, with an awkward financial profile and a full price. The 100% primary, growth-oriented structure and the strong lock-up are points in its favour, and the deleveraging is almost incidental because there is little debt to repay. Against that sit three years of declining revenue, a 42% profit drop once the 2024 disposal gain is set aside, a loss-making product arm, related-party uses of proceeds, and a ~28-35x multiple. The entire thesis reduces to one question: can the Raffi and Nagita brand convert reach into re-accelerating, recurring revenue, and is that worth paying a premium for while the trailing line still points down. Underwrite it only if you believe the brand re-rates the growth, not the history.
Independent forensic analysis of preliminary prospectuses (Prospektus Awal), for educational purposes only. Not financial advice and not a recommendation to subscribe, buy, or sell. Figures are drawn from draft documents and may change in the final prospectus; opinions are analysis attributed to those documents. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before investing.